Twelve Capital is once again issuing regular event updates as the first half of the 2019 US Atlantic Hurricane Season officially commences. In fact, on 21 May, storm Andrea actually became the first named storm in the Atlantic this year although it did not make landfall.
These updates will be issued on a fortnightly basis. As always, Twelve Capital continues to closely monitor any catastrophe events and will issue specific updates on any relevant new major events which occur.
Overview of current forecasts
Current forecasts for the North Atlantic Basin of the actual number of named storms and hurricanes that might occur range from 12 to 14.5 named storms and from 5 to 7 hurricanes. On a long-term basis, this would be a slightly above average season, given that the average number of storms observed between 1950 and 2018 is 11 named storms and 6 actual hurricanes.
At the time of writing, the following noteworthy natural events have recently occurred although at present, these events are either not expected to have a significant impact on Twelve Capital’s portfolios or industry insured losses have not yet been estimated for them.
On 27 May, an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 occurred at a depth of 110km in Peru (Source: USGS). Initial information reported indicates that the earthquake resulted in structural damage to buildings and infrastructure as well as some loss of life. The earthquake’s epicentre is located in a sparsely-populated area of the country away from the larger cities. At this point, Twelve Capital expects relatively little impact on its Cat Bond and Private ILS strategies.
Severe convective storms in the US
During May, a series of US convective storms across the Midwest, Central Plains and Northeast led to a number of tornadoes and flooding. Currently, the insured losses are expected to be about USD 1 billion (source: AON), however, these are not expected to have an impact on portfolios managed by Twelve Capital.