Hurricane Willa made landfall on Mexico’s Pacific coast on Wednesday 24 October as a category 3 hurricane, and weakened to a tropical storm as it tracked inland. The central pressure, as reported by the US National Hurricane Center, measured approximately 965 hPa as it approached the coast. Therefore, it is unlikely that the parametric IBRD Fonden 2017 Cat Bond will trigger. (This bond features a so-called parametric trigger with a write-down schedule depending on the bond’s central pressure before landfall. The parameter, in this instance, is the central pressure).
Hurricane Michael has resulted in almost USD 1.5 billion of claims to date, based on data filed by insurers and collected by local regulator the Florida Office of Insurance Regulation (FLOIR). Total insured loss estimates for Michael are still expected to be from USD 7 to USD 10 billion.
Twelve Capital is closely monitoring the above events and will issue more detailed updates should this event prove material, particularly regarding any potential impact on its portfolios.
The assessment of insured losses is still ongoing. Estimates remain wide-ranging, demonstrating the uncertainty around quantifying the insured losses relating to Hurricane Florence. RMS estimates industry-insured losses from wind, surge and inland flood (including NFIP) to be USD 2.8-5bn. The first PCS loss estimate remains at USD 2.5bn while NFIP itself estimates their losses at USD 1-2bn. First loss information received from cedents, including the NFIP, indicates little to no impact for the Twelve Capital portfolios.
At the time of writing, the following notable natural events are ongoing. At present, these events are not expected to have an impact on Twelve Capital’s portfolios.
Typhoon Yutu is approaching Luzon in the Philippines and is expected to bring typhoon force winds on landfall. Yutu could potentially have an impact on Hong Kong and China later this week.
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