Hurricane Florence made landfall last Friday as a category 1 hurricane.
Industry loss expectations have been reduced to mean values of USD 1.6bn (wind – source: RMS) and USD 3.1bn (wind and storm surge – source: AIR). Inland flood loss estimates have yet to be determined and are not included in those numbers.
Substantial damage is expected from the ongoing inland flooding. A significant number of residential and commercial properties remain at risk. Storm-induced flood risk in the US is often not part of homeowner policies and as such, any impact on Cat Bonds is limited.
The biggest risk for the Cat Bond market appears to be within indemnity trigger structures, where uncertainty will remain until the sponsors issue their loss statements. Overall, the impact of hurricane Florence on Cat Bond and ILS portfolios is likely to be small, despite initial mark-to-market volatility.
Tropical Cyclone Mangkhut
Having passed over the Philippines (as a category 5), Mangkhut is currently affecting China (as a category 1). Hong Kong has experienced tropical storm force winds.
Twelve Capital is closely monitoring the above situations and will issue more detailed updates should these events prove material, particularly regarding any potential impact on our portfolios.
At the time of writing, the following natural events are ongoing or have recently occurred. At present, these events are not expected to have an impact on Twelve’s portfolios.
Tropical Cyclone Isaac
Passed through the Lesser Antilles, Caribbean on 13 September.
Ex-Tropical Storm Helene
This system is currently in the mid-Atlantic. The storm is forecast to weaken further before reaching Ireland, most likely on 18 September. No impact on portfolios is expected from this event.
Tropical Cyclone Olivia
Tropical storm Olivia made landfall on Hawaii on 12 September with tropical storm force winds. No impact on portfolios is expected from this Event.